The drastic oil price fluctuations in recent years have made researchers and policymakers curious about the role of each STRUCTURAL shock in the Variability of crude oil prices. In this study, fluctuations of WTI & ORB prices are analyzed in the form of a STRUCTURAL vector auto regression model (SVAR) over the period from 2006 to 2018. Based on historical decomposition of WIT price, fluctuations of crude oil price in 2008 are mainly due to a combination of STRUCTURAL SHOCKS, in which oil demand SHOCKS play a significant role in the sharp fall of oil prices since the second half of 2008 Onwards. While the reason for the fall in WIT crude oil price in the second half of 2014 was largely due to supply SHOCKS and oil inventory demand SHOCKS. During this period, contango has accelerated the accumulation of crude oil commercial stocks and has intensified the oil price fall.

Excessive fluctuations in economic growth as well as inflation, increase economic risks, as a result of which the level of investment, production, and social welfare are decreased. Modem economic theories attribute fluctuations in macroeconomic to STRUCTURAL SHOCKS and internal economic reaction to these SHOCKS. The present paper examines the relative significance of STRUCTURAL SHOCKS in elucidation of fluctuations in macroeconomic variables using the STRUCTURAL auto-regression method. By using a macroeconomic model, the identified STRUCTURAL SHOCKS are as follows: real oil income shock, supply side shock, trade balance shock, real demand shock, and monetary shock.The results of the study show that supply side and oil income SHOCKS are the main sources of economic growth fluctuations. Although positive oil income shock increases GDP growth at a low rate in the short run, it cannot guarantee long - run stable economic growth. Positive monetary shock (Monetary policy) has a positive impact on production on the short run, which turns out to be negative in the long run. All in all, the results of this study indicate that although demand management policies (monetary and fiscal policies) play an important role in stabilizing inflation, their effect on stabilization of economic growth is limited.

This paper has investigated the effects of STRUCTURAL and exchange SHOCKS on the macroeconomic variables by using a DSGE model. In macroeconomic dynamics, three assumptions had made. First, economy faces nominal rigidities, second, because of fiscal dominance in Iran, defining monetary policy is not possible, and third, Iran economy is an small open economy that its macro variables have been affected by exchange SHOCKS. In this way and by using quarterly data in the 1369-91 period, model parameters has estimated and the results show the effectiveness of real exchange rate, law of one price gap, and nominal exchange rate on inflation and economic growth. Moreover, based on simulation results, exchange rate fluctuations cause change in the equilibrium path of inflation and output.

this study employs a STRUCTURAL vector autoregression (SVAR) model to investigate the macroeconomic SHOCKS on Malaysian tourism industry, especially how the economy dynamically responds to oil price SHOCKS, exchange rates, changes in price level, exports, economic growth and tourism income during the study time period from January 2001 to December 2012. The results indicate that oil price SHOCKS, economic growth, exchange rate, and exports have a contemporaneous inverse impact on tourism revenues except for consumer price index which has a positive impact. This study added instant information to manage tourism industry in Malaysia. The findings of the study are useful to implement a number of corrective measures for the promotion of tourism in a country.

Economic volatility has been decreased over the past three decades in the world especially in type of GDP growth, as known the "Great Moderation” . There is no agreement on the causes of this. But there are three categories of causes: the good luck, good policy and STRUCTURAL changes hypotheses. The purpose of this research is evaluate the three hypotheses in the form of the relationship between the real GDP volatility, monetary policy index, the STRUCTURAL change indicator, exchange rate and oil revenues during the period of 1352-1396 in Iran. This research is using a STRUCTURAL vector autoregressive model (SVAR) with application of the Blanchard-Quah (B-Q) restrictions. According to the results, the impact of the monetary policy index on the volatility of production is 0. 971, the impact of the financial liberalization is 0. 1, and the revolution and war is 0. 978. The effect of monetary policy SHOCKS on production volatility is 0. 971 which is more than two factors of good chance (oil revenue fluctuation 0. 831 and exchange rate of 0. 587) and STRUCTURAL change effect (capital inflow) of 0. 002. Therefore, all three categories of factors affect production volaility in Iran.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of fiscal policy SHOCKS on the actual, cyclical and STRUCTURAL budget balance in OPEC countries during the period 1980-2015. For this purpose, by separating the budget balance into two cyclical and STRUCTURAL variables, using the Panel STRUCTURAL Vector Auto Regression approach, which it presented in Pedroni (2013), as well as separation STRUCTURAL SHOCKS into two common and idiosyncratic SHOCKS among OPEC countries, the effect of fiscal policy is examine. Regarding the results, the effect of expenditures fiscal policy on the actual and STRUCTURAL budget has been positive and the effect of tax policy has been negative in theory. Based on the results, the need to pay attention to automatic stabilization and the use of monetary policy to deal with economic problems, rather than applying discretionary fiscal policy, are advisable.

This paper studied the short-run restrictions by a simple aggregate demand-aggregate supply model to identify STRUCTURAL SHOCKS. Combined with the Blanchard-Quah restriction, it allowed estimation of the slope of the aggregate supply curve, the variances of STRUCTURAL demand and supply SHOCKS and the extent to which STRUCTURAL demand and supply SHOCKS are correlated, are estimated. Quarterly data for the period 1368:1-1385:3 were utilized in this study. This paper found that the demand and supply SHOCKS were weakly correlated. On the other hand, the point estimate of the output-inflation tradeoff parameter, which is the slope of the short-run aggregate supply curve in the AS - AD model, implies that the immediate effect on output of a STRUCTURAL supply shock is larger than that of an equal-sized STRUCTURAL demand shock. The variance decompositions also indicated that with causality from demand to supply, 25% of the short-run variation in output and nearly 9% of the long-run variation in output was the result of the STRUCTURAL supply shock.

Most of the economic plans of industrialized countries due to their dependence on oil imports, as well as oil exporting countries due to the importance of oil revenues in their economy, are formed based on oil price changes and developments. Oil price developments, which are interpreted as SHOCKS, are mostly random in nature, and for this reason, the future SHOCKS or the probability of their occurrence or both are uncertain and unknown for the actors of the oil markets. raw will be uncertain. In this research, the effects of international crude oil price SHOCKS on economic fluctuations in Iran have been investigated using the STRUCTURAL vector autoregression (SVAR) model. In the short term, oil supply and specific demand SHOCKS in the oil market led to an increase in oil prices and, as a result, curb economic production. An increase in oil prices caused by aggregate demand SHOCKS will increase economic output. Aggregate economic demand shock acts as the main source of oil price SHOCKS, and the specific demand of the oil market creates more restraining effects on economic production than aggregate supply and demand. Also, energy industries are less affected by supply and demand SHOCKS than other industries due to the effect of government subsidies and the share system of state companies. The effect of specific demand SHOCKS on oil price on industrial production is greater than supply SHOCKS and demand SHOCKS.